Looking towards the future - August 10th, 1999 - Drew Cosner
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this column are those of the participants and the moderator, and do not neccessarily reflect those of the GIA. There is coarse language and potentially offensive material afoot. Man, I'm too tired to come up with a hidden message tonight. Don't say I didn't warn you.
The revolution is now. Throw out those controllers, and donate your Playstations to the next homeless person you see having a heated debate with a garbage can. 2D is dated. 3D is pretentious. CD quality sound is noninteractive, and MIDIs just don't cut it. Plotlines make a game noninteractive, and the lack thereof makes the game an aimless waste of time. Yes, my friends, everything sucks. Everything, of course, with the exception of Pen and Paper RPGs.
Oh, what fools we were to overlook such a robust and important aspect of the RPG community. While we were concerning ourselves with games like Final Fantasy VIII, which will undoubtedly suck because of the presence of automobiles and the lack of super deformed, 2 dimensional sprites, we were neglecting such important news as the release of the latest Dungeons and Dragons mystical, magical card pack. And we call ourselves an RPG site.
Am I a sarcastic bastard? Damn straight.
If you program it, they will come |
Drew,
Over time, no matter how long a game has been out, something always
comes out that lets new people jump on board, while still letting veteran
gamers enjoy themselves. Super Mario RPG came out at a time when complicated
games like Chrono Trigger, Lufia 2, and Final Fantasy VI were supreme. Yet,
SMRpg was an easy game to learn for anyone, yet was fun enough for the
veteran audience. Games like PokeMon are another example. Guardians Crusade
was an attempt at one. They're like stepping stones. Start simple, and move
into the big leagues. In ten years, if we aren't pointing to kids and
yelling that we were happy when Game Boys were black and white AND heavy,
then I think RPGs will still be there.
-Mike Drucker
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As technology advances, we're always going to see at least a few titles keeping the younger crowd in mind. The trick is to make sure that while offering something the younger crowd can enjoy, it still appeals to older gamers. Say what you will about Nintendo, that's something they've always been able to pull off. Hopefully other developers will be able to follow suit so that the gaming ranks will continue to swell.
Blurred beyond all recognition |
"When the Drink button was pressed it made an instant but highly
detailed examination of the subject's taste buds, a spectroscopic
analysis of the subject's
metabolism and then sent tiny experimental signals down the
neural pathways to the taste centres of the subject's brain to see
what was likely to go down well. However, no one knew quite why it
did this because it invariably delivered a cupful of liquid that
was almost, but not quite, entirely unlike tea." --The Hitchhiker's
Guide to the Galaxy
I believe this may best describe what will happen if the next decade's
video game creators attempt to mainstream video games and blur genre
lines. Basically, I see these theoristic future games' elements split
up like a pie chart...however large the fan following for the specific
genre is, that's how much the game will feel like that kind of game.
They will be games that will be almost, but not quite, entirely unlike
{genre X}.
I really don't think that the industry will turn out this way, because
mainly it's just stupid. (Sorry, Drew! But the idea is pretty far
fetched..) People know what they like, and companies are going to give
it to them. Damn, I'm thinking of so many analogies for this right
now, it isn't funny.
Just look at cereal. Go ahead, look! Drive to the grocery store and
head to the cereal isle. It's mainstream. It's got it's own isle.
But look at all the varities! There's cereal for kids, adults, adults
who act like kids, kids who act like adults...there's cereal for the
sweet tooth, the health nut, the price concious, etc, etc! Those
companies aren't going to get together and try and create a cereal that
everyone will love! They'll lose money! Another reason is, that this
cereal doesn't exist!
The point of this all is that everyone has their own tastes. People
want what they want, and they don't want the next guy/gal's wants to
impose on theirs if they can help it.
Personally, I see the future as what we have now, but bigger!
Invariable, more people will begin to play video games, and they'll
become more and more mainstream. I also see new genres rising up, not
just retooling or joining of old ones. If the industry's going to
continue, they'll have to! It will only take so many monster sim/RPG
crossings before we begin to get bored. We've got the creative people,
we've got the mind expanding drugs, so let's get out there and create
some new genres! Think -outside- the box. Those early game pioneers
sure did, otherwise, the only genre we'd have would be little ships
flying around in space, shooting other little ships. Where has our
imagination gone? Perhaps into a pokeball with our level 99 Mewtwo?
Think, people, think! Otherwise, we'll be doomed to a life filled with
Nutri-Matic machines that constantly feed us some cupful of liquid that
are almost, but not quite entirely, unlike tea.
-Aaron Littleton
I've been through the desert on a horse with no name, and really...how
cool is that?
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I never said that all genres would blend into a single, conglomerate genre. In fact, I did and do predict that we're going to see many different styles of games, even more than today. However, I do expect to see developers stealing elements from many genres as well as innovating new ones in order to create the gaming experience they have in mind, Metal Gear Solid being an excellent example of just that. The creators didn't set out saying, "This is going to be an action game," or, "This is going to be an RPG." They wanted to create a game in which you felt as though you were infiltrating the enemy base, and in order to accomplish this they didn't bother with adhering to any strict genre rules or limitations.
Like you say, I fully expect to see new genres and game styles popping up over time. And, I don't expect to see the popular genres just disappear over night, they will undoubtedly continue to live on, growing grander and more expansive with time.
Of course, 10 years from now you'll all have forgotten what I predicted anyhow, so I could tell you that a forsee a future in which video game consoles will become sentinent and start to eat our babies, and it wouldn't really matter. It's a fool-proof scheme.
Space for rent |
Hey.
On the topic of what Video Games will be like ten years from now; it's
an interesting question. First, consider the technological leaps. Whatever
medium will be used, will games of the future take up such large amounts?
Even 4 or 5 DVD's seems enormous (Except for a completely Hi-Res FMV game
with *many* hours to it, but will that make for interesting games? From
what I've seen of those types of games, no), so what will the genres be like
then, if all of them still exist? 200-hour RPG's with hours of FMV and full
voice-acting? Perhaps. But that type of game (To be *good*) would require
a very large budget, and many years to complete.
What about other genres? Fighting games with 100 characters and no
story, or 10 characters and a great story? Or both (which, again, would
require massive amounts of time and effort to work)?
On the aspect of time and money. If this is the case to make
successful games, how will upstart game companies succeed? Or will the
developers with the most money thrive? Games with the graphics of
Lunar:SSSC (In some genres) still have some chance for success today, but
what about then? I see some people look at Lunar, and say, "The graphics
suck," and don't even bother with it, and I see some people notice the great
story, and enjoy it. What about ten years from now? Even with cutting edge
technology at a low price, will it be possible for developers to create
"good" games on a non-massive budget? It all depends on what gamers want,
and what developers deliver.
So, in closing, there are many possible outcomes, but, will they be for
the better? Just something to think about.
-Tyler
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Format space is like money. The more of it you have, the more ways you find to expend it. A few years ago, needing 650 Megabytes of storage would have seemed outrageous; now we find games that require even more than that. Sure, for the time DVDs seem to offer more space than anyone could ever need, but give developers time and they'll find ways to use it. Think more texture maps, larger AI and physics scripting, more high quality audo tracks and sounds, along with other things that I just can't predict at this point in the game.
I also expect that we'll continue to see more start-up developers creating entirely new and innovative games as time rolls on. There's two possibilities here that spring to my mind.
- There will still be enough of us who dig old-style games, or something a little new and different that there will be some money to be made. Because of this, larger publishers with the cash to spend will be willing to support smaller developers who are either working on an entirely new idea, or something a bit old school.
- The modular scheme. Okay, I'm going to try to explain this somewhat abstract concept as simply and effectively as possible. Essentially, this is a setup wherein certain development houses will specialize in specific pieces and elements of a game. For example, you'll have a group of programmers get together and create a customizable physics engine, or perhaps a graphics editor or modeler. Then game developers looking to create a new game that may not have the huge development teams and loads of cash that companies like Konami or Square are privvy to can just buy a few engines, customize them accordingly, and spend their time and money on the actual gameplay itself. Because of this, even smaller companies who have thought up The Next Big Thing can afford to create a competitive product.
It'll be interesting to see how things fall into place in these coming months.
Ask and ye shall receive |
Dear Drew:
Well, you asked, and thus you shall receive! I predict that in the future, games will become more mainstream, and much like other mainstream industries, the gaming industry will be flooded with crap. Yes, thats right! In 10 years, when playing on your Super Duper Playstation 4, which can handle over 4 billion polygons a second (easily outclassing the inferior Dreamcast 3, which only handles 3.5 billion polys a second), you will have a sudden desire to play your old SNES.
While playing your old SNES, you will discover that other than the large number of crap games that come out in the future, games haven't changed very much. Sure, every generation spawns a new sub-genre or two (think "Survival Horror"), and produces a few truly innovative titles, (think Metal Gear Solid, and maybe FF7), but other than that, the games are pretty much the same.
With this deeply profound thought in hand, you realize that life isn't so bad after all.
Unless you're a graphics whore. Then you aren't satisfied. Ever.
-Sugoi
PS: I wasn't bashing the DC. It's cool. I think people focus on poly pushing power too much.
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You act as though 90% of the games on the market today aren't crap, Sugoi. With every generation of hardware, you're going to get some company who thinks that eye candy and gore is enough to sell a piece of shit game that is nothing more than an insult to our collective intelligence. This is inevitable.
Lose yourself in the game |
I'm peering in my crystal ball, bought at a deep discount on Black Rose
Street in Meribia after Royce split town, and trying to see the future
of gaming. Damn thing doesn't work, so I'll have to make this up as I go
along.
First off, Drew, I recently eclipsed the age you'll be in 10 years, and
I still love gaming. A lot of my friends do, as well, everything from
Crash Bandicoot to sports sims. I particularly like RPGs, because
there's a story to follow, and I think that's where the future of the
industry rests.
Greater numbers of new titles have stronger story elements, even
platformers and racing games. These stories allow us, as gamers, to
leave behind the occasional drudgery of our lives and indulge in a bit
of fantasy. This is the same thing that's sold movies for a century and
novels for five centuries. That hunger for story is as essential to our
well-being as dreaming. It inspires and moves us, and provides mental
stimuli beyond our limited means.
I think we're going to see more and more cinematic games and more
complex stories, with a few straightforward platformers and rhythm games
for the younger crowd. The ultimate end will be total immersion gaming
played out in a lifelike 3-D world, but that's years away. See Star
Trek: TNG or Red Dwarf to get an idea of that. I just hope the
technology shapes up soon.
-Pilcrow
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Although I still enjoy a good platformer or rhythm game as you mention, and probably always will, I'm in complete agreement. Well said.
Camping out |
The Future of Gaming
The future of gaming is a big question mark. Who's to say what will happen? The gaming industry is very fluid and dynamic, but at its heart, it is an industry of entertainment. So when I think of video gaming and its future, i take a look at its closest relative - the movie.
Entertainment requires more than a few years to penetrate the mainstream, so anyone who thinks that video gaming will remain childish based on the past decade is foolhardy and shortsighted. The movie industry's fledgling years were very much similar to gaming in spirit - they were designed to be grasped by an audience that didn't expect much. The technology prevented movies from being long, and at the beginning, without sound, so the first movies were silent comedies that could be understood with little dialogue. Take for example, the 8-bit action games, which were merely jumping and running. They were limited by the constraints of technology.
Because of the limited technology, movies were seen as a children's diversion - mature people would seek out concerts and plays to entertain themselves. Just as it was with video games. However, technology changes, and so does the audience. Movies became color, and with sound. Thus movies enter a whole new area. Movies such as Casablanca, Gone with the Wind, Citizen Kane - these movies became a familiar name to all. Movies had jumped out of being a kid's genre to being wholly accepted mainstream. Video gaming, with FMV and increasingly powerful 3d technology, are also becoming more viable. I don't think that anyone can honestly say they've never heard of FF7 or Mortal Kombat.
However, video games are not truly where movies are - for they are still partially regarded as a kid's genre. Just as some people said the same when Casablanca was released. It's because a nongamer's first experience with games tends to be how they view them for life. Really, if the first time you saw video games was when your little cousin was hopping Mario across the screen, usually you will tend to associate that with video games. Imagine:
Gamer: Have you played Metal Gear Solid?
Nongamer: A video game? I dont play kid's stuff.
Gamer: It's not for kids. It has a deep and intricate story line.
Nongamer: I bet you think it does. Just like Mario hopping, huh?
Gamer: Really, it's not like that.
Now, at this point, two things can happen. The nongamer will try Metal Gear Solid, and like it. He might play more games, and might be what you call a gamer. Or he can blow off his friend and change the subject. Now how many of you have had conversations like this with your nongaming friends? (Assuming you have any :) ) As long as there are two camps, gamers and nongamers, gaming will not enter the mainstream.
Now we come to the future. As always, I see a parallel to the movies - there will be two camps. One, the large companies (Square, Sony, Capcom) will produce "Blockbuster" games with large budgets and flashy graphics -like FF7 and Metal Gear Solid. I believe in these types of games. They attract nongamers to play video games. One who plays FF7 might seek out other games of the genre, and come to love them. Then there is the second camp. Small developers will create small games that may not sport the flashiest graphics, but innovate in new ways of gameplay, creating new genres and melding them together. No matter how good blockbuster games can be, the small games will be the innovators and the genre-breakers. This is the same dynamic front that movies are drawn from. With multiplayer making gaming more social and thus more socially acceptable, and advances in sounds and graphics making gaming pleasing to nongamers, mainstream penetration does not lay far behind. I say give it two or three years, when the new systems come out. Then we'll be there.
-Legion007
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Yeah, I feel that until gaming begins to gain some recognition in respected forums, it will never truly attain mainstream status. If it isn't being stuck in the disbelievers' faces, people whose only knowledge of games is from seeing older, more primitive examples of the media, then they'll never come to realize just how far along gaming has come. I think that awards ceremonies are a crock of shit for the most part, but until games are represented in such flagrant public displays, the general public will never come to realize how advanced games are becoming.
Lose your grip on reality |
Howdy Drew, my man. You and I go a long way back. Anyway,
Gaming upgrades will not stop until you can not tell the difference
between a game and reality. I know that you look at the systems sitting on
your desk right now and think that it won't happen on those. Well, I agree.
And it won't happen on the "PlayStation2", "Dreamcast", or "Dolphin" either.
Mainly because you will only see the game on a teevee screen. Do you
remember back a few years ago, when a little thing called Virtual Reality
came out? Sure, that graphics sucked and the VR faze didn't last very long,
but your view of the game was all around you. If you raised you physical
hand, the virtual hand would raise. If you looked up, the game view would
tilt up. You get the idea. When the day comes of having life-like graphics
(we are pretty much there already), and VR type stuff comes back, companies
will work on that until the only difference between a game and life is the
consequences of your actions. Can you imagine playing a future "Final
Fantasy" game on a system like that? (Yes, Final Fantasy will be around
forever ... it has to. *sniff*) You would be playing as the main character,
holding a butt load of a sword, and swinging it at the enemies, taking off
hit points. And by then, life like blood and gore too; cause let's face it,
our morals as a country and as humans are plummeting down. The only thing
that would tell you that your playing a game would be that, instead of being
arrested and thrown in prison, you would hum with the victory tune and grab
the man's gil. Or until, you mom walks in your room and hits the power
switch. Then and only then, will gaming companies stop developing new
hardware, and finally develop a decent game or two.
But, you asked about gaming in the next 10 years ... the crap I'm
talking about is FAR off, so ... sorry. I messed up. Just wait about 20
years down the road when you ask the 10 year question again and then you can
use my letter. For gaming in 10 years though ... I have on freaking clue.
-The one who speaks bad about "They" all the time.
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I can't decide if I think that virtual reality is a great idea, or just plain frightening. Games are addictive enough as it is, should virtual reality actually come to pass I can only imagine the news stories. We'll be hearing about guys who died of starvation after they got lost their grip on reality and assumed that the virtual food they ate to recover hit points would be enough to sustain them.
Not only that, complete and total isolation from reality in order to play in a mock world is the stuff of films and books. It all sounds pretty freaky to me.
Alternative possiblity |
Ten years from now, Satan will have long since claimed the earth, and God
will have taken His lambs to Heaven in the Rapture. Demons will run the
earth, terrorizing its people in a neverending Hell. Obese, socially inept
gamers will be forced to run along precariously balanced I-beams in
abandoned construction sites, dodging barrels and fireballs their laughing
demonic masters hurl at them. Innocent children will be hooked up to
infernal machines and made to play Super Ghouls and Ghosts for SNES,
receiving electroshock every time they lose the armor, until they plead
plaintively for death. And Satan himself will sit atop a giant throne of
human bones, sipping from a goblet of blood and watching in amusement as
John Carmack runs through an endless labyrinth for all time, desperately
evading his monstrous pursuers while hoping to find the blue key for the
blue door so that he can get the invisibility.
Oh, and Y2K will make the world explode.
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Yeah, I suppose that's always a possibility, too.
Closing Comments
Friends, the release of the Dreamcast is almost upon us, and along with it comes the question of whether or not you intend on purchasing one. Certainly, Sega has made their fair share of mistakes in the past few years, but the name brand is still strong. More importantly, as the age of the average gamer increases, there are more gamers with some pocket cash that are ready and willing to shell out for the next big thing.
Especially when you take into consideration the fact that the Dreamcast has one of the strongest and largest launch libraries in the history of consoles. There are going to be games that are well worth the price of admission to play. Another key factor is the amazing growth of the PC gaming scene. In years past, consoles were the leaders of the gaming market by a large margin, so a 5 year cycle was just fine. However, in recent years PC games have continued to progress with leaps and bounds, and the games available on PCs far eclispse those possible on the aging Playstation and Nintendo 64 in almost every aspect. Because of this, there are console gamers who are more than ready to embrace the next generation of platforms, and the Dreamcast is out long before the competition in the form of the PS2 and Project Dolphin.
Of course, being the first to hit the market has one of the Saturn's downfalls, as the later released Playstation and Nintendo 64 were far more powerful, at a lower price to boot. So what's to say the seeming advantage of being out first won't end up being a hindrance when a far more fit and trim Dolphin and PS2 hit the market? Conversely, should you opt to stick with your current system for the time being, will you really be entertained with the glut of sequels and uninspired "me too" titles that will be hitting the current platforms for the next year? The current technology has been pushed to its limit, all that remains will be a few key titles. Will you not feel a bit envious seeing your friends playing the latest gadget while you're stuck playing the fourth game in an already over exposed series? Or do you expect to see developers taking advantage of their handle on the current consoles to make truly innovative games? The questions have been posed, and I await your answers and opinions. Sock it to me, baby.
-Drew Cosner
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