Lowball victorious -
August 14, 2001 - Chris Jones
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed
within this column are those of the participants and the
moderator, and do not necessarily reflect those of the
GIA. There is coarse language and potentially offensive
material afoot.
Don't need to read no books on my history / I'm a simple man, it's no big mystery...
Don't say we didn't warn you.
It is to weep: the terrible, terrible business that Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within has done in the States. It wasn't the world's greatest movie, to be sure, but compared to a lot of other mediocre crap that's been making the rounds lately, it deserved much, much better than the $31.9 million Yahoo lists it at.
What's even sadder is looking at the estimates that people were sending in - I thought I was being overly cautious with $72 million, especially when the number of +100 million guesses I got was greater than the sub-100 million guesses.
But the question is, why did we all guess so high? I honestly don't know; even within the gaming community, there were nearly as many people worried about the film as were hyped on it, and there wasn't an insane amount of hype surrounding the film's release to the general public either. Looking at what did sell this season, I honestly have no idea why most people stayed away they way they did... but perhaps the contest's winner, Mr. James Doyle, can give us some insight.
Onward.
Fear the MUMBO-JUMBO |
Hi Chris,
I'm disappointed but not at all surprised that my prediction ended up
pretty close to the mark. While I enjoyed the movie, it just wasn't
something that could sell to a wide audience. It seems in America, movies
sell mostly on star power or sequels to hit movies. Very few people will
pay just to hear the actor's voice. For example, while pretty much everybody
agrees that FF:TSW was a much better movie than TOMB RAIDER, quite a lot of
people went to see the latter just because of Angelina Jolie, leading to much
better box-office numbers.
In addition to this, of course, is the dreaded "mumbo-jumbo" factor I
mentioned in my original prediction: "The plot, while pretty good, is filled
with 'spiritual mumbo-jumbo,' which I think will turn off the audience the
trailers seemed to be aimed at."
Of the 62 reviews that were still accessible to me today from the Rotten
Tomatoes website, 8 specifically mentioned the words "mumbo-jumbo".
Examples:
"Her mentor, Dr. Sid (voice by Donald Sutherland) has some wacky, MUMBO-JUMBO
idea about marshalling eight spirits to save the planet."
"It's more than a little frustrating to be so stimulated visually while being
spoon-fed incongruous spiritual MUMBO JUMBO and force-fed incompatible summer
action conventions."
"On the down side, Al Reinert and Jeff Vintar's script mixes standard videogame
exploits with pseudoscience and superstitious MUMBO-JUMBO - something about
the Eight Spirits and Gaia the soul of Mother Earth."
"The basic storyline is sort of a gloomy variant of "Starship Troopers" (or of
the short-lived TV series "Space: Above and Beyond") gussied up (or, more
properly, weighed down) with all kinds of mystical, New Agey MUMBO-JUMBO
involving some sort of Neoplatonic World-Soul or "Gaia" and an effort by
scientists to combat the alien powers by collecting eight spirits which, when
brought together into a higher-consciousness union, will vanquish the threat."
"But while the `wow' factor remains consistently high -- there is a great
set-piece as the heroes shoot their way past the phantom menace -- the level
of interest begins to dissipate as the one-dimensional characters, mystical
MUMBO-JUMBO and hokey plotting simply fail to take hold."
"This film's bleak and murky vision, and somewhat incomprehensible spiritual
MUMBO-JUMBO storyline, just didn't do it for me."
"Unfortunately, the movie itself, based on a video game, is overlong and
riddled with stiff dialogue and standard sci-fi MUMBO-JUMBO and scary aliens."
"It contains all of the cliched, maudlin suckiness of the animation sequences
in a "Final Fantasy" game, and all of the overblown animistic MUMBO JUMBO and
ostentatiously goofy special effects of an anime cartoon."
So, I'm disappointed that I ended up winning this contest, but I'm certainly
happy to claim the prize, and hopefully the next time around (if there is
one) Square will make a movie more tailored to the market it targets. And
also, I'm sure the DVD and VHS will sell pretty well...this seems to be the
sort of thing that will draw a lot of DVD sales, despite poor box-office
numbers.
Also, let me be one of the first to say good-bye to Chris, and thanks for
the many months of excellent and consistent work. I'm sure I'm not the
only one who appreciates the time and effort you put into this site on
a daily basis.
To sum up, Xenogears is not only the best game ever made, but the greatest
story ever told in the history of humanity.
--
James Doyle |
Makes sense... all except that last part. I'd like to think that, say, the success of The Sixth Sense proves the US is ready for something a little more cerebral in it's action/suspense movies, but the general failure of the equally-good Unbreakable tends to shut that down. On the other hand, since Unbreakable is doing so well in DVD sales, perhaps FF:TSW will as well.
For those of you curious about it, the original prize I'd had in mind was the generally useless but still kinda cool selection of two FF:TSW action figures. Mr. Doyle, however, opted to wait a few months for the much more interesting DVD release... so perhaps his theory about the film gaining new life on video has some merit to it.
Ground state |
In about three months, I see myself still with my PS2 and with a new Gamecube. Those two consoles have the history and promise that I'm looking for. It's hard to argue with stuff like MGS2 and Eternal Darkness. The Xbox is iffy for the simple reason that it has no real image yet. It has no clear focus or defining character or direction. If they can get a more coherent vision, I might look into their console. Nintendo is obviously milking its main characters, and they have rarely gone wrong with that. As for the games, MGS2 could be a true masterpiece. I'm also looking out for Devil May Cry. DMC has a unique combination in its present state of displayed brillance and tempting possibilities. Most of the Xbox and Gamecube games still haven't shown as much actual playing as I need to rally behind a game. The only certain thing seems to be that November will be the time for massive developments in gaming.
-Blackmoxa
|
I think this is where a lot of people see themselves in a few months; if they don't have a PS2 already, they'll probably acquire one for MGS2 and/or FFX, and the Gamecube's lineup seems to have at least one title everyone will enjoy. Personally, I think titles like Pikmin and Luigi's Mansion, which aren't that impressive on paper, will really turn a few heads when people get to experience them first hand - ICO's a very interesting game, but I had way more fun over on Nintendo's side of the floor.
As for the Xbox... well, Microsoft's got a long history of starting off mediocre, and slowly building to become the one thing in a given software area that nobody can live without. I don't think they'll be huge this coming season, but I wouldn't count them out just yet.
Outlook hazy, ask again later |
Well, after having us predict the future 10 years in advance, and even
30 years in advance at one point, I suppose it was inevitable that you
would stretch our precognitive abilities to the max by requesting
predictions for the tumultuous timespan of three months.
What do I think will happen? I think it'll pretty much be a wash at
first. The X-Box will not fail. For starters, it's an American
product, which gives it a home-turf advantage here: games made for it
will be out sooner, will not suffer from translation errors (a factor
which is still regrettably present, though more in the sense of "wooden"
translations), and there are always some people who equate "American"
with "better." (Sometimes validly, sometimes not.) Plus, Microsoft is
a marketing powerhouse. They have enough money and talent to hype this
machine into a media frenzy. The fact that it seems to be the most
technically powerful machine of the trio (in flat terms of clock speed,
video memory, etc.) can't hurt. The price, on the other hand, might
prevent some sales.
The Gamecube will also succeed. Coming in at a lower price is a sure
bet for at least reasonable sales figures. Plus, Nintendo has the
strongest name recognition when it comes to video games (both Sony &
Microsoft have recognition, but not so much in that field). Add in the
legacy of fans of previous Nintendo consoles, and the Gamecube will be
doing all right. Maybe not great -- the lackluster career of the N64
may hurt it a bit -- but it won't be suffering. A GBA adaptor to play
games on the TV while at home would surely boost sales as well.
The PS2 has the advantage of an early start. Granted, this didn't save
the Dreamcast, but it looks as though the PS2 will just be hitting its
stride when the other consoles come out. Its debut was weak, but its
anniversary looks to be very strong with the games coming out between
now and the end of the year. Factor in the first time buyers -- and
people who've never bought a console before are likely to be a large
portion of the buyers during the holiday season -- and the PS2 has
another advantage. The backwards compatibility will likely draw many
first-timers to it, simply because of the immense software library.
(Plus, the PSX games will be cheaper, which parents will notice.)
Again, the price of the console itself may be an issue. Let's face it,
$300 is a lot of money, even before factoring in memory cards, a second
controller, and at least one actual game. If Sony drops the price, the
PS2 will do considerably better; I don't know if Sony will or not, but
it wouldn't surprise me.
I don't expect any console to spectacularly or abysmally by the end of
the year. I think that it will turn out much like the last console war,
with the winners and losers being pretty much decided a few years into
it.
--
Chaomancer Omega
|
Funny, I got more than a few letters saying that talking about the next gen console wars would surely set off a firestorm of controversy, but just about everyone seems to agree that Sony and Nintendo, at least, will come out of it pretty well.
The Xbox is the wild card, but even so, they're not that interesting: the main question seems to be whether the Xbox will flop horribly, or merely muddle along for a while. I don't see anyone saying it'll go over huge, which makes this entire debate one of slight advantages... interesting, but not inflammatory.
Replay |
Chris-
Well, I've been a diligent reader of DA for several months, sad to see
you go.
Anyway, I have a pretty good idea about what's going to happen with the
consoles. I suspected, months ago, that the Dreamcast would end up like
flopping Sega's consoles always have to varying degrees. I was kind of
surprised to see Sega outright kill it, but, you know, better to go out
in a blaze of glory than just fade away. Before year's end, the DC will
unforunately be dead as a doornail, so that's a non-issue. Sony looks
like the top candidate for the winner here. They have a bigger userbase
than most people would think. I don't see Microsoft having the games or
developer support necessary to beat Sony. Basically, they need exlusive
titles. A lot of people have PS2s. If games are coming out for both
the Xbox and the PS2 (and the PC, and...), people aren't really going to
care if the Xbox makes it look better. Most people can't bothered. So
MS either has to let developers release for multiple platforms, which
would not be good for the Xbox, or strongarm them into being Xbox only
(like with Bungie "We Love the Xbox. Can we go home now?" Software). So
basically, I'd be surprised if MS is going to pull it off with the
Xbox. It'll just be too hard to get REAL console-only games on it.
Without that, it's just a scaled down PC, and everyone has a PC, right?
(or a Mac, like me. Heh heh.)
Nintendo's Gamecube is lacking DVD-Video playback out of the box, which
is a major drawback considering both Sony and MS have that as standard.
The Gamecube also has a smaller capacity, and what with Nintendo still
having trouble keeping 3rd party developers on board, it looks like the
GC might suffer the same game shortage the N64 did. The big plus is the
lower cost of the GC, which might help to put it out there and get some
market share. That said, the GC probably looks much more enticing to
developers than the N64 did, so I think it'll be close, closer than it
was with the N64 vs. PSX, between Sony and Nintendo.
Really, though, I'm disappointed with the current state of consoles.
Curse you, Square, for ditching Nintendo back in 1996. Curse you,
Nintendo, for being dumb and for telling Square to get lost a few months
ago. Curse you, Microsoft, for just getting in the way. And curse you,
Sony, for having better marketing despite the inferior console.
Regardless of who wins this "round", buying one console just won't get
you the same wide variety of games anymore, like it did with the SNES.
That, I really do lament.
- xmatt
|
Two things I'd like to address here: first is the idea that Nintendo will be hurt because they don't have DVD out of the box. (Microsoft's selling their DVD remote separate, last I heard, so they don't have it out of the box either.) I personally never really got why playing DVD on a console was such a big deal - I had a pretty good DVD system before I even got my PS2, but more than that, standalone DVD players are just easier to deal with. No messing with access codes, or little on-screen menus - you push the labeled button on the remote, and things happen. DVD players are pretty damn cheap right now, and I'd think most people who wanted to double down on a console/DVD system would have already gotten a PS2, so I can't see the lack of a DVD player as a make-or-break thing for Nintendo.
Second, I think you've got a bit of Golden Age syndrome with your SNES comment: the PSX has by far a more diverse library than the SNES ever did, it's just that Nintendo isn't the whole world anymore, so you can't keep your head buried in the one console and still manage to get just about all the must-play games. (Not that you could do that even during the SNES period, but it was easier to pretend. Hmm, I smell a topic...)
More women in gaming you should know about |
Let me start off with the obligatory Reiko Kodama rules, as does Skies of Arcadia! One thing some of the readers might have been confused about is the fact that she didn't produce Phantasy Star, rather, she did PS I, II, and IV's character design work. Which in my opinion, certainly for the time, were incredible. This isn't a promotion scheme, but interested parties can look through our games section for retrospectives on the first two said titles. ;) Not to mention her involvment in Sonic I, II and Magic Knight RayEarth...Simply put, she rocks.
I was disappointed that no one mentioned Michiko Naruke of Wild Arms I and II fame. Besides being quite the Japanese rose, her music in the two games were and are simply incredible, especially the orchestral remixes. Whenever I need to listen to some game music quickly, rather than searching through my 250 game music collection....Naruke's works are a pretty safe bet, well other than Falcom's of course! Her control over her various fusion styles of western and classical make her a one of a kind gem. As good as Shimomura is, another favorite of mine, Naruke's evocative style makes her tops in my book.
Oh, and I fully agree with the comments on Yoko Kanno. I don't think I've heard anyone that displays more knowledge of ethnic/world styles as she did in her KOEI Game music works album.
Jeff Davis, GIA Vaults
|
Nothing to say here, except that it seems like somebody, somewhere should be writing this stuff down; if comics can have a site like Friends of Lulu, why can't somebody put together a list of noteworthy women in console gaming?
A! No, wait, D! Definitely D! I think... |
"How could any woman resist a career in which an army
of pasty, out of shape geeks feebly wave their
controllers in the air in celebration of her name?"
Now tell me, would the most stereotypical response
from a pasty, out of shape geek be (a) to try to
assert his feeble masculinity by challenging you to
some sort of inane physical contest, made completely
ridiculous by the fact that this is the Internet, (b)
to curl up and cry in the corner while eating piles
upon piles of delicious Pork Rinds, (c) to try to
disprove the statement by differentiating certain
aspects of his social life (that can't be proven
anyway seeing as this is the Internet) from the
accepted geek stereotype, (d) to write an angry,
arrogant letter that actually supports and defends the
stereotypical geek lifestyle, or (e) to simply type "U
SUK DIQ LOSER!!!!!#@$#$"?
I could probably write a graduate thesis for sociology
about this...
Sephiroth Katana
RPG Classics (http://www.rpgclassics.com)
|
And what a thesis it'd be. Of course, writing a thesis simply moves you from being a pasty, out of shape gaming geek to being a pasty, out of shape academic geek, the primary difference between the two being that gaming geeks get to have more fun in the short term playing games, while academic geeks get led on by the promise that someday, their hard work will pay off with a degree and maybe even a job. Yee-haw!
Of course, I'm both a pasty, out of shape gaming geek and a pasty, out of shape academic geek, so maybe I'm a bit biased on the subject...
Who knows what makes people do this crazy job... |
"...hell, if you think reading a letters column full of spoilers is fun, try
writing one when people send you spoilers about a game's ending mere days
after it comes out. Keyser Soze himself could not be more cruel."
- Chris Jones, June 16, 2000
No offense, but after that statement, exactly how many DA applications are
you expecting?
That aside, you've done a great job and I for one will hate to see you go.
SonicPanda
|
Damned if I know why people would want it after reading a warning like that, but want it they do: within less than 24 hours of the original posting, we've gotten over 40 responses. The last DA app netted over 100 in a week, and since the site's readership has more than doubled since then, I'd say we're probably looking at somewhere between 150 and 200 this time around. Which is great news for both the site and the readers, since more competition means a better chance of getting someone really, really good. The more the merrier, so keep 'em coming!
I don't know who Logan is, but the name sounds cooler than "Lenny" |
No more Chris? Sniffle. If GIA were Law and Order, you were Lenny.
Actually, Drew is more of a Lenny. You can be Logan.
With regard to the topic, however...I'm not sure when exactly it's coming
out, but I expect DQ7 will be good but do poorly. And this leads back to my
big dilemma...what IS coming out in that period of time? I have no idea. I
am so out of the loop. Cry.
OK, after a quick glance at the release dates, I feel slightly more
informed. Lufia will, I suspect, be a solid but unremarkable game with a
small but devoted legion of fans, but won't hit the big time. Pokemon
Crystal will sell a lot of copies because of dumb kids who want every
Pokemon game ever produced, even if they already have Silver or Gold. It
won't be a huge thing, though, more of an inevitability, like weary parents
paying the biannual Pokemon Tax to Nintendo. Advance wars will be poopy and
unremarkable. Super Monkey Ball will sell to all the GIA staffers and may
have a little cult following among monkey fans and jaded nerds who think
it's kitschy, but it won't outdo anything we've seen so far this year. Arc
the Lad Collection, obviously, won't be out yet. Tales 2 won't get any more
interest here than Tales did, but it WILL be a good game, possibly very
good. Gitaroo Man will be the next Parappa, but won't be that big a thing
this time next year unless it has a sequel to its name. Harvest Moon will
rock your face off, but only eight people will buy it because it's a
Harvest Moon game. MGS2 will be an unstoppable colossus, with gaming
magazines stumbling over themselves to pour glowing adjectives on it at
each new screenshot. Kids will knife each other in subways for copies of
MGS2. It will be big.
I think, though, that the game to watch is Hoshigami. It won't be huge, but
I think it has the potential to be a major critical success. In a few years
it could be going for more than its store value on eBay. We'll see.
-AJ |
Jeez, you're kind of a pessimist, aren't you? Here's my take on the gaming situation: even if Advance Wars does suck, the GBA Tactics Ogre game looks pretty damn good. Those looking for classy, deep, thoughtful games will be delighted by ICO, and those just looking for some enjoyable gameplay will be able to twitch their little thumbs to death on the Gamecube. Even FPS fans will find a lot to like, with Halo on the Xbox. None of these games make me sigh with blissful anticipation like MGS2, true, but there's a good chunk of interesting stuff coming out soon... and I'll actually have the time to play through some of it. Cool.
Closing Comments:
We just looked ahead, and now I'll ask you to look behind. The PSX was a clear winner in this last generation of software, and most people who read this column probably have at least one fond memory of a great gaming experience they had on that platform. But one console can't rise without another falling, so here's my question: of all the non-PSX platforms that were around at the same time (N64, Saturn, Dreamcast, etc.) what one game do you feel got unfairly overlooked? I'll be back tomorrow, see you then.
-Chris Jones, dividing by 2 in all future box office estimates
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