Double Agent
The projections within - July 10, 2001 - Chris Jones

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this column are those of the participants and the moderator, and do not necessarily reflect those of the GIA. There is coarse language and potentially offensive material afoot. I wear my sunglasses at night in a mistaken belief that they make me look cool. Don't say we didn't warn you.

Just to be up front about it, I'm gonna withhold any real discussion of the FF Movie until at least next Monday. Even some hard core fanatics (like myself) won't be able to see it until the weekend, and it'll probably make for a more interesting discussion if people allow it to simmer in their heads for a bit, rather than blurting out their immediate impressions.

And now, just because I'm so gosh darn proud of it, here's some Prolog code.

inorder(empty, []).
inorder(node(A, X, Y), L) :- inorder(X, L1), 
				inorder(Y, L2),
				append(L1, [A|L2], L). 

Ain't it purty?

Onward.

Fear
In less than 24 short hours, the source and defining point of my geekitude will be on display, available for public consumption, on gigantic screens nationwide. My childhood memories will be subject to dissection and scrutiny by millions of strangers. My self-worth and dignity will be demolished by critic after critic, until I am left a hollow shell of a man.

Hold me.

- Mr. Nip, afraid for his soul

Always good to have some pessimists hanging around, just so they can make me feel upbeat by comparison. While I don't know how the film'll do, I do have some firsthand evidence that the graphics are truly amazing... and the plot suggests a run of the mill SNES RPG plot. (And not even a Final Fantasy SNES plot, at that.) I'd love to be proved wrong, but I'm not nearly as hyped about the film now as I was when I first saw the screenshots on the Unofficial Squaresoft Home Page, all those many years ago.

On the other hand, if the film is great, it'll validate your gaming habit in the eyes of your peers, and if it isn't, you can always make the excuse that "the games are way better".

On the "mainstream" I
First off, let's hear some guesswork on how you think the film will do withe the mainstream audience from a qualitative perspective.

Personally, I think the 'mainstream' will mostly ignore FF the Movie, what with the 2 zillion other 'blockbuster' movies coming out this summer. I think most of the 'mainstream' that actually do see it will react to it as being a good looking movie, but also as being too complicated for them to follow. And then those of us who are fans of the games will probably fall into two camps -- those who say it's the best FF ever, even if you can't play it, and those who hate it and say it sucks because there's no castles and black mages and whatnot. Personally, I'm probably closer to the second group, though I'll reserve final judgement until I watch it -- sometime after it comes out on video.

Second, give a concrete guess as to what the domestic box office gross will be a month after the film opens

$44 Million, I think it will open at number 2 or 3, then quickly drop off.

-JD4

On the "mainstream" II
What is up my nozzle,

FF Movie = big business with the mainstream. This year has been a pretty big gross year, and there's no sign of it stopping. Most people are looking for some nice eye candy, so they'll go see the movie based soley on the trailers. The rest of the movie going folks, who look for more to a movie then gee-whiz effects will check it out if it gets good word of mouth based on story and what not. My projection: $105 million in the first month. That may seem high, but I think it'll do it.

Cactus

These are just two of the many letters I got talking about how the film will play with the "mainstream"... whatever the hell that is. Think about it for a second: JD4 says it'll be too complicated for the same "mainstream" that blew more than $200 million of their own money on the fairly intricate Sixth Sense. Cactus says most people are looking for some eye candy, which is true, but there are lots of pictures with great effects that die a lonely death each year because of competition and the lack of a decent plot.

I think it's time we stop back for a second and realize that there's no such thing as the "mainstream", just what the rest of the world looks like from your own particular tribe's view. The lovesick girls who made Titanic the biggest grossing film ever are a completely different audience than the legions of geeks who saw Episode 1 over and over, and they're both different from the dating audience of My Best Friend's wedding or the mooks who swarm Dumb and Dumber. There's some overlap, sure, but each of those films made big bucks because it made a solid connection with a specific, core demographic, and had enough broad appeal not to immediately drop off the radar.

I honestly don't know what kind of connection Final Fantasy'll make; you can estimate the hard core RPG audience in the States at around 200,000, but if everybody who bought FF7 goes to see it and brings a friend, that's a fair amount of cash. Hell, for all we know, every PSX owner in the country may feel compelled to see it on opening weekend - that's not the "mainstream", but even half that number would mean $50 million. Meantime, let's hold off on the mainstream predictions until we have some idea of what we think about it ourselves.

The dread mumbo-jumbo factor
Hi Chris,

I don't think the movie will go over very well with the general American public. The plot, while pretty good, is filled with "spiritual mumbo-jumbo," which I think will turn off the audience the trailers seemed to be aimed at. Also, the trailers were downright *BAD*. I went into the movie expecting it to be filled with awful, cliched dialogue and endless fight-the-aliens scenes. I'll predict it bombs in theaters in the US, coming in third this week and pulling in maybe $35 million before next month. The hardcore Final Fantasy fans will see it early, maybe pushing it to a stronger debut, but it will probably fall off quickly. Which is a shame, considering it's a pretty good movie, overall.

--
James Doyle

I haven't checked my email since about 7, but this is easily the lowest figure I've seen on it so far. The thing to remember tho, is that even if these are the kind of numbers we see out of the States, Square could still make their money back fairly easily in the Japanese market. I dislike making gross generalizations about a culture, but Japanese anime and RPGs do seem to lean towards mumbo jumbo, and whatever hardcore audience the film finds over here will be several times larger over there. Ironically, even as I'm worried about about the quality of the film, Square's financial status on it looks pretty good... and I think I can honestly say I'd rather see them make a mediocre film that does ok than a great film that bombs, considering how precarious their situation is at the moment.

Customization redux
Speaking of GBA modification, it almost sounds like a good time for Nintendo Power to bring back the infamous "Draw your own Game Boy" contest that was used once, many, many years ago.

Inside the magazine was a single page with an outline of the (original, bulky) Game Boy. Readers were challenged to draw up the most interesting paint job they could think of - and some even went past it. I recall one of the winners having butterfly style plastic wings and grips.

Furthermore, the top 3 contestants actually won a custom made system with their design (with a slew of others getting Nintendo designed editions). There were quite a few "Game Girl" entries.

Just imagine what could be done with a Game Boy Advance in such a contest (without destroying the warranty!).

Richard "KZ" Knight

I remember that contest; I was thinking about it yesterday when reading Ian P.'s letter. More specifically, I remember that the first place winner drew up a design that had a pair of bicycle-like hand grips coming out near the bottom of the unit... not entirely unlike the handles of an N64 or PSX controller. I've always wondered if that guy saw any kind of royalties from his idea, and why it's up to people like Mad Catz to produce add-on handles, rather than having them standard on every Game Boy.

Meantime, I'll just regret that this isn't back in the dot com boom days of yore, when some industrious gaming website might have had the spare cash to put together such a contest of their own.

Que?
Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within will absorb general audiences' attention through the use of its hauntingly realistic computer-generated characters and space-aced sci-fi locales, but the proverbial sponge will have no room left to swab up the inconsistent and muddled story, which will imply that the visuals were not the only thing computer-generated in the film. Movie-goers, albeit reluctantly, will have plenty of time to ponder the real point of this film while fidgeting uncomfortably in their seats during one of the many scenes in which the gregariously life-like characters make a false pass at waxing philosophically whilst queerly risking life and limb in an otherwise key action scene.

In summary, the audience will be blown over by the film's awesome visual appeal and cinematic qualities, only to be sent awash into the cosmic waves of hokey befuddlement as the characters attempt to express the inexpressible through the use of philosophy better left to the less heavy-handed of scriptwriters. The film will perform respectably until the real Hollywood heavyweights such as Jurassic Park 3 and Planet of the Apes arrive later this month. I suggest a $56 million take at the U.S. box office by August 12th, 2001, though I fear that my estimatation may be a bit too generous. We'll see.

--Matthew McGee

This might be some sort of parody on my sometimes overly verbose writing style - I honestly can't tell. Regardless, I think you've got it backwards: the graphics and action sequences that I've seen are good enough so that whatever nagging doubts the audience has about plot holes in the back of their minds, they'll be too distracted to think about them until after the movie's over.

The threat of Planet of the Apes and Jurassic Park are far more serious - as long as FF's the only big name game in town, it'll continue to do ok financially no matter how good it is artistically. But unless it's really good, it'll get buried by those other summer blockbusters... and it may be anyway, just because it's animated. Bummer.

Remember what I said about the mainstream?
Chris,

On a personal note, the more and more I hear of this movie and see in previews, the less I want to see it. But that's just me, and I've never seemed to quite fit in with mainstream ideals.

Anyway, since this is about mainstream, I think it'll do fairly well. Most of the people going are either going because they're gamers, or they're impressed by the pretty colors. In the case of the former, which technically isn't mainstream, they'll probably get the most of it, or be dissapointed by the fact that it looks as if there is nothing really Final Fantasy in it (just an assumption, but where are my chocbos and moogles?). But from that area, I'm gonna go with a good $20 million, if not more (tickets are $4.50 here, which I don't are cheap or not). In the case of the latter, you'll probably see huge numbers the first week, but nothing beyond that. Americans don't seem to like philosophy that much, as can be shown through the big grossing movies this summer like Tomb Raider or Shrek or Pearl Harbor or Mummy Returns. Most people will go to see an action movie that looks pretty, but if it's as philosophical as they say, they won't go back and their friends might not either. So I'll guess around $35-40 million from them, which brings it to around $60 million, and Square will lose money.

But then Crouching Tiger did well, from what I heard, so what do I know?

Chris, who doesn't write columns.

The thing is, you've got to differentiate between good philosophy and bad philosophy in movies. Americans in general can relate pretty well to fairly coherent philosophical ramblings, whether it's critiquing nihilism in Fight Club or questioning suburban values in American Beauty. The difference between that and, say, Xenogears, is that the characters act out the theses of their stories. In Crouching Tiger, Lu Mu Bai doesn't just spout a lot of Zen jargon, he lives it, and makes his decisions because (or in spite of) his philosophical beliefs. Ashitaka embraces San even as she stabs him; we rarely saw the same thing from the supposedly pacifistic Fei.

So in a way, how the US reacts to the philosophy in the FF movie'll depend on to what extent the characters are actually moved by "the spirits within"... in other words, to what extent Sakaguchi's mastered the art of showing, not telling.

Vocal minority
Chris,

I'm honestly not sure how the Final Fantasy movie will do. On one hand, the previews certainly focus on a lot of action, which will draw some people, but I'm afraid that the more Eastern feel to the movie may drive some people away. Add to this the fact that some people may not want to go based on the fact that it's inspired by a series of video games. However, Tomb Raider did well financially, so if the movie is exciting enough to attract a mainstream audience, I could see the film doing well.

My guess for the weekend take is $54 million.

Now, the bigger question I have is this: there are two vocal songs on the soundtrack. Which one will be in the ending credits? My guess is on Lara Fabian's "The Dream Within", for two reasons. One, the melody for the song was written by Eliot Goldenthal, who did the music for the rest of the film, and is a melody heard in a few previous tracks. Second, the more mellow sound of "The Dream Within" seems to fit in with the orchestral music heard through most of the film. The other song on the CD, L'Arc~en~Ciel's "Spirit Dreams Inside", is a good song, but the more rock and roll feel of it is a bit jarring. It might be included in the end credits, but my feeling is that they commissioned the song on for the Japanese market since L'Arc is a very popular band in Japan. I recommend the soundtrack to fans of film music, by the way; while some of the music is reminiscent of other films, it's a powerful score, and one that I can't wait to hear in the theater. And, it includes an English-language promo for Final Fantasy X, which makes me want the game even more.

Brian Sebby

No idea what the vocal themes are going to be - I've stayed away from even the soundtrack thus far because I wanted to see everything in context. (The teaser at E3 aside, of course.) Still, it's worth reminding people that you might want to consider picking up the film soundtrack; aside from the FFX promo, you're helping Square turn a profit on this thing, and increasing the chances that they'll bring more of their OSTs over.

Man, I feel like a PBS telethon all of the sudden...

Closing Comments:

On a tangential topic from this whole movie bit, I'm reminded of a conversation I had with a friend of mine a few months back, when we were talking about gaming setups. I was talking about various large scale systems I'd experienced and the best way to get a more cinematic experience on a limited budget, when he pointed out that he wasn't really looking to be overwhelmed by his games, just to enjoy them.

I think there's an interesting debate here: you're likely to enjoy a lot of Square's stuff more if you've got a big screen and surround sound to enjoy the FMVs, but classics like, say, Bionic Commando really don't demand anything more than an old 13-inch color with a clear screen. So what do you think of gaming setups: what do you have, what do you want, and what baselines do you think companies should design around? See you Wednesday.

-Chris Jones, carefully researching theater sound systems

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